It’s been a few weeks since Apple revealed the worst kept secret of the year. Of course I’m talking about the iPad.
There are a lot of really interesting aspects to this device. It seems that opinions are pretty split too as to whether this device will be a success, or if it is missing to many features or options to satisfy the majority of people commenting on it. The reality is this breaks down in to several points of view.
Apple’s vision
I’m speculating based on the way that Apple presented the iPad, and how they have proceeded with the iPhone as to what their vision is. Lets start out with a big prediction, Apple wants every computer they sell to follow the current software model of the iPhone and the iPad. Primarily integration with an app store where they can “control quality” and make a cut of every sale. I wouldn’t be surprised to see MacOS move closer in style to iPhone/iPad OS in the future with a tight integration with the App store. Based on who you are this could be a good thing or a bad thing.
Ultimately though Apple wants to create an end to end customer experience that appeals to the majority of non technical users.
Apple’s vision for Developers
Apple has been cavalier with how it treats it’s developers. And with a few exceptions Apple has retained control and carried on with it’s plans unimpeded. Where Apple shines is in motivating their developers to create great applications despite the closed platform, and the tight controls. They have succeeded again and again and building a platform that attracts some of the greatest software designers and produces some of the most compelling applications. this brings me to the App experience.
The App the experience
The iPhone has demonstrated that people don’t love the device they love the applications that run on the device. What makes the Apps such a success is the ability for the App to completely own the experience on the device. Great apps that are intuitive and fun are more common on the iPhone than on any other mobile platform. This is what makes the iPhone a success. Apple is just trying to replicate the success with the iPad.
The Apple faithful
These are the people who will line up at their local Apple store to be the first to walk away with the iPad the first day of sales. They will happily pay the highest price these devices will probably ever sell at and they will never have a negative thing to say about their new toy. (I’m generalizing here) These people are some of Apple’s biggest evangelists. They are the ones who will defend every Apple policy, and argue every shortcoming is by design. In general they also tend to be nice people with a passion for Apple technology. I think for them the iPad is the manifestation of the PADD (Personal Access Display Device) from Star Trek The Next Generation:
The Tech, Gadget sites and pundits
Many technical people who we could call computer power users have weighed in and stated their general ambivalence for what was announced as just a bigger iPod Touch. I think many in the tech community who helped fuel the huge amount of hype for the iPad are now suffering from a post announcement hangover. Basically every tech site worth it’s salt had some list of predictions, as the day of the announcement grew closer so did the lists of predictions. As with many things in life the anticipation was greater than the actual reward, and many in the various tech communities were disappointed with the lack of multitasking and a bevy of additional features that were perceived to be a requirement for the ultimate tablet.
The Grandfather / Grandmother factor
The iPad’s most impressive showing may be with the many people who have no interest in learning about modern operating systems. The simplicity and straight forward application interactions, and yes even the fact that it purportedly doesn’t multitask will make this an easy to use hit with those easily confused with a multi windowing multitasking windows system.
The competition
Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer briefly showed off the HP Slate at CES. It seemed like Microsoft was trying to steal some of the iPad’s thunder, but in the end all they showed off was a sleek computer running Windows 7. The good news is that Windows 7 is a great operating system that will scale down to provide amazing possibilities to tablet devices. The key will be if application developers can design interfaces that are tablet friendly, something that iPad seems to have accomplished implicitly. While iPad may have a touch friendly interface Microsoft has the tool chain to quickly produce functional applications. Xcode and Objective C represent a huge learning curve, and if Windows based devices can match the physical characteristics of the iPad, their software dev tools of VS 2008/2010 are far more productive.
Conclusion
Apple will have at least a minor success with the iPad. There are a lot of people out there who will buy one site unseen, (or in this case device untouched). There are also a lot of people out there who will buy one because of the apps available, although it’s questionable if iPhone apps will be as compelling on such a large device. Will Microsoft, HP, Dell etc be able to come up with a compelling device and user experience to compete. The success of competitors will also come down to whether developers will be able to accept Apple’s limitations. Microsoft has a chance to capitalize on the control factor by showing how developers can get full access to tablet hardware and leverage features like multitasking. The key will be if Windows developers can come up with compelling application experiences that can compete with the iPad’s. Either way it’s going to be an exciting time for the tablet or PADD for factor.
